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ERA’s Reported 11% Edge in Retrospective Epidemic Forecasting Is Reassessed, With Data-Revision Leakage Explaining Nearly All of the Gain
A new analysis finds that Google’s ERA was backtested using season-finalized data, effectively giving it access to revisions that were unavailable to CDC models when their forecasts were made. The two achieved similar Weighted Interval Scores when the data underwent little or no revision, showing that AI forecasting benchmarks must preserve the version of the data available at each point in time.